Windy.com Weather Models

Talk about the weather while you're parawaiting,
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toni
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Location: Traverse City, MI
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Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:44 pm

So I've been trying to get a handle on which Windy.com weather model to put the most weight on. This may vary by the region of the country (speaking as someone in the US) you live in; I live in northern lower Michigan. GFS for this area typically shows more aggressive wind than ECMWF and definitly METEOBLUE and NAM. I've read up on all of them, I understand a lot of the differences. I look at each (multiple times a day because this sport has turned me into an OCD weather watcher) and then compare each against what is happening when I fly. I feel like it's always more or less an average of ECMWF and GFS, though gusts are usually not accurate.

Anyone have any tips?
megatron
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Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:12 am

It may depend on where you live. Where I live (missouri) GFS and ECMFW are often very different. I find GFS more accurate,
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DougB
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Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:17 pm

Sort of depends on what is happening with the big weather picture. A some days ECMWF is right, some days GFS is right or take the average of the two as Toni says. The gust forecast is usually high unless there is an active weather pattern.
I also use ryancarlton.com & uavforecast.com too.

Doug B.
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toni
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Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:09 am

The gusts are always what trips me up. Only once have they seemed as high as the forecast.
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DougB
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Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:19 pm

Ya, I pretty much ignore the gusts in Windy. I use the Windy 4 wind surface forecast plus winds aloft from ryancarlton.com .
Once you get a feel for your area, it becomes easier I think. Of course there are seasonal winds which will take more time to learn.

If you really want to get your weather nerd on, read "Understanding the Sky" by Dennis Pagen. Not an easy read but full of great info.

Doug B.
sline
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Sun Dec 22, 2019 8:31 pm

I'll second the gust forecast on any of them. It's always high. If it says 30 you should pay attention for sure.
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